Republicans are facing a tough road heading into November, but pollster Nate Silver says the GOP has one significant advantage on its side: far more money to spend on the midterm elections than Democrats.
Silver made the assessment during the Thursday episode of the "Lovett or Leave It" podcast.
"This is one of the more consistent elections that I've tried to forecast, in that sense that like, every indicator is bad for Republicans," Silver said. "Except maybe the outside money, that is the one thing they have going for them."
According to Silver, Republicans will need that financial edge to dig themselves out of the hole they are in. He noted that the president's party typically sees a swing of 7 to 8 points against it during midterm elections. This year, however, Silver is projecting a swing of 10 to 11 points against President Donald Trump.
Silver said the current political environment looks similar to the 2006 midterms. That year, then-President George W. Bush's unpopularity helped Democrats gain 31 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate, flipping control of both chambers.
Still, Silver said Republicans have a month left to turn things around, and having a large money advantage is a good way to do it.
The GOP's financial edge is substantial. CNBC recently reported that the party's "three national committees entered September with roughly $233.4 million in cash on hand, nearly double the $130.4 million held by their Democratic counterparts."
That figure does not include the $416 million held by the MAGA Inc. super PAC. It also does not include the $126 million held between the No Going Back PAC and Safety & Affordability PAC Inc., two other groups aligned with Trump.
While Silver's analysis is not what conservative voters want to hear, another prominent data analyst offered an even gloomier outlook earlier in the week.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that Trump's net approval rating of -16 is a troubling sign for Republicans. Enten said the number leads him to believe a "blue wave" is about to crash down on the GOP.
"Simply put, mathematically, this equals a Democratic majority for the House of Representatives," Enten said.
Taken together, the forecasts from Silver and Enten paint a challenging picture for Republicans just weeks before voters head to the polls. Both analysts point to a political environment that favors Democrats, with Silver comparing it to one of the most difficult midterm cycles for a sitting Republican president in recent memory.
But Silver's analysis also leaves the door open. With roughly a month to go and a substantial cash advantage across the party's national committees and allied groups, Republicans still have resources to try to shift the race. Whether that money will be enough to overcome what Silver projects to be a larger-than-usual swing against the president's party remains to be seen.
