Three of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 midterms are effectively deadlocked, according to a new InsiderAdvantage poll that shows Republicans holding narrow leads in Texas and Kansas while Sen. Susan Collins slips behind her Democratic challenger in Maine.
The survey found the leads in Texas, Kansas and Maine have been switching back and forth, with every race still falling within the margin of error.
InsiderAdvantage questioned 1,200 likely voters in each state and weighted the results by age, race, gender and political affiliation. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Paxton Pulls Ahead in Texas
In the Lone Star State, Republican Ken Paxton holds a one-point edge over Democrat James Talarico, 49% to 48%.
The result marks a shift from a string of recent polls that showed Talarico leading by single digits. The Real Clear Politics polling average, which now includes the InsiderAdvantage survey, puts Talarico ahead by 2.2 points.
The race has drawn a flood of money. Elon Musk reportedly funneled a stunning $158 million to a Texas super PAC backing Paxton. The New York Times reported that ad spending in the contest has topped $500 million and that it could become the most expensive non-presidential race in American history.
Collins Falls Behind in Maine
In Maine, longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins trails Democrat Troy Jackson 47% to 49%, according to the poll.
Democrats are hoping to flip the seat, which Collins has held for nearly three decades.
The race turned heated during a contentious debate Thursday. After Collins blamed Jackson for a protester’s interruption over data centers, Jackson told the senator to “shut up.”
Jackson entered the race in July, taking over for scandal-ridden Graham Platner. According to the Maine Morning Star, he has raised four times as much as Collins since then. But Jackson has also spent heavily, burning through nearly $20.4 million and heading into the midterms with just under $4 million in cash.
Collins’ campaign spent nearly $10.9 million over the past three months, leaving her with just under $5.4 million, the report said.
Marshall Holds Slim Lead in Kansas
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has pulled one point ahead of Adam Hamilton, 48% to 47%.
The race has emerged as a surprising toss-up. NPR reported that both parties have redirected tens of millions of dollars in recent weeks in an effort to shape the outcome.
The president announced Tuesday that he will campaign in Wichita next week for Marshall and other Republicans on the ballot.
Whether Trump’s visit will move voters one way or the other in the tight contest remains to be seen.
What Comes Next
With all three races sitting inside the poll’s margin of error, the results underscore just how competitive the battle for these Senate seats has become as the midterms approach.
In Texas, record-breaking spending continues to pour in. In Maine, a veteran senator is fighting to hold a seat she has occupied for nearly 30 years against a well-funded challenger. And in Kansas, a race few expected to be close has drawn tens of millions of dollars from both parties, along with a planned visit from the president.
