Democratic strategist and CNN contributor Paul Begala is making a bold prediction about the 2028 presidential race, arguing his former television sparring partner Tucker Carlson will enter the Republican primary and ultimately capture the GOP nomination.
Begala, who co-hosted CNN’s “Crossfire” with Carlson during the 2000s and once considered him a close friend, offered his prediction Wednesday during an appearance on Jessica Tarlov’s “Raging Moderates” podcast.
Speculation surrounding Carlson’s political future intensified in early August after he released a 10-point manifesto that was widely viewed as potentially laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential campaign.
During a 90-minute monologue, Carlson outlined his vision for the country and expanded on previous calls for building a third-party movement, although he stopped short of announcing a candidacy.
Begala, however, believes Carlson would ultimately choose the Republican Party rather than launch a third-party campaign.
“I believe he’ll run, he’ll run as a Republican, and he’ll win the nomination,” Begala said. “He will be the Republican candidate in 2028.”
Begala argued Carlson could dominate a Republican field containing several prominent figures currently discussed as possible successors to President Donald Trump.
He reserved particularly harsh criticism for JD Vance, calling him an “oaf,” “dumb-dumb” and “charmless no-talent.” Begala claimed Vance has largely echoed Carlson’s political messaging and would struggle against him directly.
“Tucker will mop the floor with him,” Begala said.
Begala also dismissed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another potential contender, arguing Rubio is benefiting from his current position because it is not a partisan political role.
He compared Rubio’s situation to Hillary Clinton’s time as secretary of state, arguing that Clinton faced harsher treatment once she returned to electoral politics.
“I think he’s a little hollow,” Begala said of Rubio. “I think he’s got a glass jaw.”
Tarlov also pointed to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was in Iowa Tuesday “in his personal capacity.” Begala additionally mentioned Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former White House spokesperson, as another possible contender.
But Begala remained convinced Carlson would overpower the competition.
“Tucker will whip them all; he will kick their asses,” he said.
Begala suggested Carlson’s potential political strength could come from combining cultural populism with an economically populist platform.
He predicted Carlson could move toward a Bernie Sanders-style economic message by attacking concentrations of wealth and supporting labor unions.
Begala said such a strategy could allow Carlson to assemble what he described as a “holistic argument” based around populism.
Despite his prediction about Carlson’s potential political strength, Begala made clear he would not support such a campaign.
“I’m terribly worried for my country,” Begala said. “I wouldn’t support any of that stuff.”
Still, the longtime Democratic strategist said Carlson should not be underestimated if he decides to jump into presidential politics.
“He’s the most talented guy out there,” Begala concluded. “And candidate talent matters.”
