CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten says Democrats sweeping both chambers of Congress is now the single “most likely” outcome of the midterm elections after analyzing thousands of polls — a conclusion that even caught him by surprise.
Enten outlined four potential scenarios for control of Congress in a YouTube video uploaded Monday, putting the odds of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at 52%.
“I was surprised by this before we started cracking the numbers, but that is why we do it,” Enten said. “It’s the numbers. Don’t blame me. The numbers are the numbers.”
Enten’s projection is based partly on Senate polling showing Democrats competitive in several states that have recently leaned toward Republicans.
He pointed to Democrats holding a 9-point advantage in North Carolina, along with 3-point leads in Maine and Ohio. Democrats also hold a 2-point advantage in Texas, according to the polling Enten presented, while Iowa remains competitive.
Under that scenario, Enten said Democrats could walk away from the midterms with a 52-48 majority in the Senate. Even if Republicans manage to capture Michigan, he said Democrats could still end up controlling the chamber with 51 seats.
But Senate races aren’t the only warning sign Enten highlighted for Republicans.
President Donald Trump’s current political standing could also pose a major challenge for the GOP, according to the CNN analyst.
Enten cited polling showing only 24% of Americans believe Republican policies have “helped” their cost of living, while 55% say those policies have “hurt” their financial position.
“That is very, very bad news,” Enten warned, noting that the issue helped Trump win the 2024 presidential election.
Trump’s net approval rating is also 20 points underwater, according to Enten, putting the president in rare historical territory at this point in a midterm cycle.
Enten said he searched through historical numbers and found only two other presidents with net approval ratings below negative 20 at the same point: Richard Nixon in 1974 and George W. Bush in 2006.
Neither president’s party emerged from those midterms controlling either chamber of Congress, Enten noted.
“No!” Enten declared when asking whether either party held or won control of the House or Senate.
Bush’s Republican Party lost both chambers in 2006, while Nixon’s party similarly failed to hold or win either chamber in 1974, Enten said.
A Democratic sweep, however, is far from the only possibility.
Enten put the next-most-likely outcome — Democrats winning the House while Republicans retain the Senate — at 33%.
A Republican sweep of both chambers came in at 15%. Enten pointed to structural advantages benefiting the GOP, along with deeply negative favorability ratings for the Democratic Party, as reasons Republicans could still maintain complete control.
The most unlikely scenario by a wide margin would be Republicans keeping the House while Democrats capture the Senate.
Enten put the chances of that happening at less than 1%.
